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Microsoft word - fjoutz curriculum vita sept 201

Curriculum Vitae: Frederick L. Joutz
The George Washington University Kensington, [e-mail bmark@gwu.edu] , webpage: http://home.gwu.edu/~bmark/ Current Position

Professor (2004 to present) and Director of the Research Program on Forecasting, Department of
Economics, The George Washington University, Washington, D.C., 20052.

KEY

QUALIFICATIONS
Fred Joutz is a Professor of Economics and Co-director of the Research Program on Forecasting
at the George Washington University. His research focuses on macroeconomic and energy
econometric modeling and forecasting. He contributes quarterly macroeconomic forecasts to the
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the
Economic Survey International ESI by the CES/Ifo Institute for Economic Research. He has
served as a consultant and technical expert to Energy Information Administration, the IMF, the
UAE, Uzbekistan, the American Gas Association, New England Power Pool, Consumers Energy,
the U.S. and European Patent Offices, and other private corporations and government agencies.
In addition, he has been a Research Scholar at the IMF. This work has involved writing research
reports, developing econometric models and forecasting models, providing technical support,
and conducting technical workshops and training sessions. It has included work on EIA’s Short-
Term Energy Outlook (STEO), Annual Energy Outlook (AEO and NEMS), and International
Energy Outlook (IEO). He is a Senior Fellow of the US Association of Energy Economics. He
has been an associate editor for Energy Economics and the International Journal of Forecasting.
Previously he was a visiting professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, a
visiting assistant professor at Oberlin College and worked at Resources for the Future. Fred Joutz
received a BA from the University of Maryland, MA from the University of British Columbia,
and PhD from the University of Washington.

Academic Experience

1987
Department of Economics, University of Washington. Ph.D., "The Informational Efficiency of Macroeconometric GNP Forecasts from 1976 through 1985," chairman - Dr. Charles R. Nelson. Department of Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, University of Maryland, College Park, MD. B.A. International Economics Previous Positions

IMF Research Department, Visiting Research Scholar, April 2010 – Research Project on
Measuring Energy Security and Vulnerability.
IMF Institute, Visiting Research Scholar November 2007 – Research Project on Economic
Growth and the Contribution of Private Capital and Public Capital.
IMF Institute, Visiting Research Scholar November 2006 – Research Project on Knowledge
Production Functions and Economic Growth.
Associate Professor (1995-2004) Assistant Professor (1988-1994), Department of Economics,
The George Washington University, Washington DC, 20052.
Visiting Assistant Professor, Dept of Economics, Oberlin College, Oberlin, Ohio, 1987-88.

Member, Board of Directors, Wyoming Oil and Gas Corporation (WYOG) from 2001-03.
Economist and Member, Board of Directors, Flight Resources Inc., from 1988 to 1991.
Economic Analyst - Paid Intern, Seattle City Light (municipal electric utility), 1983-86.
Research Assistant, Resources for the Future, 1980-1981.
Publications: Refereed Journal Articles

Measuring energy security: Trends in the diversification of oil and natural gas supplies, Gail
Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, Energy Policy 39 (2011) 4860–4869.
Inflation Illusion or No Illusion: What Did Pre- and Post-War Data Say?” (with C.D.
Wei), forthcoming, Applied Financial Economics.

Energy Security: Depend, but Diversify, Gail Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, Energy
Dialogue, April 2011.
Sectoral demand for petroleum in Thailand, with Poonpat Leesombatpiboon, Energy Economics
Volume 32, Supplement 1, September 2010, Pages S15-S25, Special Issue on Asian Energy in the
Context of Growing Security and Environmental Concerns
Can the Fed Predict the State of the Economy? with Tara Sinclair and H.O. Stekler, Economics
Letters
108 (2010), pp. 28-32.
"Methods for identifying emerging General Purpose Technologies: A case study of
nanotechnologies", written with Laura Schultz, forthcoming in Scientometrics.
“Are 'unbiased' forecasts really unbiased? Another look at the Fed forecasts,” written with Tara
Sinclair and H.O. Stekler, forthcoming Economics Letters.
“Interview with Herman Stekler,” International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 26, (2010)
pages 195-203.
“Exploring the link between oil prices and tanker rates,” Maritime Policy & Management,
written with Angela Poulakidas, Volume 36, Issue 3 June 2009 , pages 215 - 233
Chen, Y., B.F. Hobbs, J.H. Ellis, C. Crowley, and F. Joutz "Impacts of Climate Change on
Power Sector NOx Emissions: A Long Run Analysis of the Mid-Atlantic
Region". Environmental Science & Technology. (2008).
"What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies,
written with Stephan Danninger, December 2008; 54: 681 - 714.
“An Evaluation of the Forecasts of the Federal Reserve: A Pooled Approach,” Journal of
Applied Econometrics, written with Michael P. Clements and Herman O. Stekler, (22) 2007,
pp121-136.
“Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous
Growth Puzzle,” IMF Staff Papers written with Yasser Abdih, July, 53 (2006), 2, S.242-271,
2006.
Publications: Refereed Journal Articles (continued)

“An Unobserved Component Model of Asset Pricing Across Financial Markets,” International
Review of Financial Analysis, written with Adrian M. Cowan, 15 (2006), 1, S. 86-107
"Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan: A Error Correction Approach," Energy Economics,
written with Pernhille Holtedahl, vol. 26 (2) 2004, pp 201-224.
“Modeling the Yields on Noninvestment Grade Bond Indices: Credit Risk and Macroeconomic
Factors” invited paper for Special Issue on Credit Derivatives the International Review of
Financial Analysis, written with William F. Maxwell, vol. 11, 2002, pp345-374.
“Factors Affecting the Yield on Noninvestment Grade Bond Yields,” Journal of Empirical
Finance, written with Theodore M. Barnhill and William Maxwell, 7 (2000), pp 57-86.
“An Evaluation of Forecasts of the Federal Reserve,” International Journal of Forecasting,
written with H. O. Stekler, vol. 16, 2001 pp 17-39.
“An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment,” Journal of Macroeconomics, written
with H.O. Stekler, Volume 21, Number 1, Winter 1999.
“Data Revisions and Forecasting,” Applied Economics, written with H.O. Stekler, August 1998,
Vol. 30, No. 8 . Received Citation for Excellence for Paper by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence.
“Forecasting CPI Food Prices: An Assessment,” invited paper American Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 79, Number 5, 1997.
"Real Wages over the Business Cycle," Eastern Economic Journal, written with Edward N.
Gamber, (September, 1997).
“Short- and Long-Run Elasticities in U.S. Residential Electricity Demand: A Cointegration
Approach,” Energy Economics, written with Julian Silk (August 1997).
"Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using
Shrinkage Estimators" written with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Robert Trost, Journal of
Business and Economics Statistics, Vol. 15, No. 1, January, 1997.
“Modeling and Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation in the U.S. Energy Supply,"
Journal of Forecasting, January, 1997,pp 477-494.
"Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Patent Application Filings," Journal of Policy Modeling, written
with Kay Adams, Douglas Kim, Gus Mastrogianis, and Robert Trost, September, 1997, vol. 19
no. 5, p491-535.
Publications: Refereed Journal Articles (continued)

"Estimation des elasticities de court et de long termes de la demande d'electricite sur donnees de
panel a partir d'estimateurs a retrecisseur" written with Hongyi Li , G. S. Maddala, and Robert
Trost, Economie & Prevision, numero 126, 5/Annee 1996.
"Bayesian Time Series Forecasting Models of Quarterly Residential Gas Demand for the District
of Columbia," American Gas Association: Forecasting Review, written with Robert Trost and
Donald Fouts, March, 1996, vol. 5, p23-40.
"Economic Growth, Energy Prices, and Technological Innovation," Southern Economic Journal,
written with Commander Thomas Gardner, January, 1996, vol. 62, 3, p653-666.
"An Integrated Bayesian Vector Autoregression and Error Correction Model for Forecasting
Electricity Consumption and Prices," in special issue of Journal of Forecasting, written with G.S.
Maddala and Robert Trost, May, 1995, vol. 14, 3, p287-310.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances: Comment," American
Economic Review, written with Edward G. Gamber, December, 1993, vol. 83, 5, p1387-93.
"An Application of Estimating Structural Vector Autoregression Models with Long Run
Restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics written with Edward N. Gamber, September, 1993,
vol. 15, 4, p723-745.
"Using Stochastic Simulation to Test the Effect of Different Data Seasonal Adjustment on
Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand," International Journal of Forecasting,
written with Robert Trost, 1992, volume 8, p219-231.
"Biomass Fuel Supply: A Methodology for Determining Marginal Costs," Bioresource
Technology, vol. 32, 1991, Elsevier Applied Sciences Publishers Ltd, p179-183.
"Informational Efficiency Tests of Macroeconometric GNP Forecasts from 1976 through 1985",
Managerial and Decision Economics, vol. 9, p311-330, December, (1988).
Publications: Refereed Articles in Books
"Estimation of Short Run and Long Run Elasticities of Energy Demand from Panel Data Using
Shrinkage Estimators" written with Hongyi Li, G. S. Maddala and Robert Trost, in Recent
Developments in the Econometrics of Panel Data: Volume I,
edited by Badi H. Baltagi, The
International Library of Critical Writings Series, Edgar Elgar Publisher, 2003.
“Modeling the Yields on Noninvestment Grade Bonds,” High Yield Bonds: Market Structure,
Portfolio Management, and Credit Risk Modeling, edited by Theodore M. Barnhill, William
Maxwell, and Mark R. Shenkman published by McGraw-Hill Company (forthcoming 1999).

Publications: Articles in Conference Proceedings

Measuring Energy Security: Trends in the Diversification of Oil and Natural Gas Supplies,
Gail Cohen, Fred Joutz and Prakash Loungani, IMF Working Paper 11/39, February 2011.
“Estimating Regional Short-run and Long-run Price Elasticities of Residential Natural Gas
Demand in the U.S.,” written with Robert P Trost, David Shin, and Bruce McDowell, 28th
Annual North American Conference,USAEE/IAEE New Orleans, LA, December 2008.
“The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices,” written with Jose Villar,
Prepared for the 26th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver
September 2006.
“The Relationship between Oil Markets and Shipping Tanker Rates under the Impact of the
Sharp Rise in Oil Prices,” Proceedings of the International Association of Maritime Economists
Conference, Melbourne, Australia, written with Angela Poulakidas, July 2006.
“Evidence on the Role of Oil Prices in Venezuela’s Economic Performance: 1950-2001,”
written with Amany El-Anshasy, Michael D. Bradley, Prepared for the 25th Annual North
American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 18-21, 2005
“Regional Short-term Electricity Consumption Models,” written with David Costello Prepared
for 25th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE, Denver September 18-21,
2005.
“Hourly Electricity Loads: Temperature Elasticities and Climate Change” written with Christian
Crowley, presented at North American Energy Economists Association Meeting, Mexico City,
Mexico, October 2003
“Disability Benefit Applications, Economic Trends, and Projections,” written with Mikki D.
Waid Federal Forecasters Conference Proceedings, October 2003.
“Seasonality and Weather Effects on Electricity Loads: Modeling and Forecasting,” written
with Christian Crowley, at MetrixND Forecasters User Conference Proceedings, September 23-
25, 2002, San Diego, CA
“Residential Electricity Demand in Taiwan,” 21st North American Conference Proceedings of the
International Energy Economics Association, October 1999, written with Pernille Holtedahl.
“Small Area Residential Electricity Demand Modeling: A Cointegration Approach,”21st North
American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October
1999, written with Anna Ter-Martirosyan and Christopher Tuttle.
Publications: Articles in Conference Proceedings (continued)
“The Impact of Motor Gasoline Taxes on Consumption and Revenues,” 18th Annual North
American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economics Association, October
1996, written with Robert Trost.
"Economic Growth, Energy Prices, and Technological Innovation," Economic Seminar Series,
15th Annual North American Conference Proceedings of the International Energy Economists
Association, October 10-12, 1993, Seattle, WA, and November, 1993
"Modeling and Forecasting Municipal Solid Waste Generation in the U.S. Energy Supply," 15th
Annual North American Conference of the International Energy Economists Association,
November 6-9, 1994, Dallas, TX.
"Short Run Forecasts and Long Run Dynamics: A Case Study Using Nitrogen Fertilizer Prices,"
Fifth Annual Federal Forecasters Conference and Proceedings, September 8, 1993, Washington,
D.C. written with Harry Vroomen.
"Combining Short Run and Long Run Forecasts: Modeling the Demand for Residential and
Industrial Electricity Using Seasonal Cointegration Techniques to Produce Consistent
Forecasts," 14th Annual North American Conference Proceedings, International Association for
Energy Economics, October 26-28, 1992, New Orleans, LA.

"Combining Short Run and Long Run Forecasts: Modeling the Demand for Residential
Electricity Using Seasonal Cointegration Techniques to Produce Consistent Forecasts," Fifth
Annual Federal Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings, September 15th 1992,
Washington, D.C.
"Developments in Forecasting: A Word of Caution for the 1990's," Fifth Annual Federal
Forecasters Conference Papers and Proceedings, September 15th, 1992, Washington, D.C.
“What Explains the Growth in German Exports?” Economics Monitor, Unicredit Bank of Italy,
written with Stephan Danninger, June 2007.
“Price Elasticity Study - An Economic Analysis of Consumer Response to Natural Gas Prices,”
American Gas Association Report, written with Robert Trost, March 2007.
“Regional Electricity Demand Model,” documentation for the U.S. Energy Information
Administration Short Term Energy Outlook Model, August 2005.
"Model of U.S. Resident Filings at the European Patent Office," Technical Report prepared for
Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas
Mastrogianis, August 2001.
Publications: Technical Reports and Non-Refereed Publications (continued)

"Model of U.S. Entity Filings at the Japan Patent Office," Technical Report prepared for Office
of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis,
August 2001.
"Model of "Other" Country Filings at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office," Technical Report
prepared for Office of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with
Costas Mastrogianis, June 2001.
"Forecasting Patent Applications by Technology Center," Technical Report prepared for Office
of Corporate Planning, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, written with Costas Mastrogianis,
December 2000.
“Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Trademark Applications,” Technical Report written with Mr.
Barry Riordan for U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, Washington DC, March 2000.
“Retail Food Price Forecasting at USDA and ERS: A Description of the Process, Methodology,
and Performance from 1984 to 1997,” written with Robert Trost, Mark Denbaly, Charles
Hallahan, and Annette Clauson, USDA Technical Bulletin 1885, May 2000.
“U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study,” written with Aimee
Dimmerman National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, December, 1998.
"Forecasting Seven Components of the Food CPI," written with Robert Trost and Mark Denbaly,
USDA Technical Report, November, 1996.
"Comparison of Bayesian VAR and Unrestricted VAR Forecasting Models of Motor Gasoline
and Distillate Fuel Prices and Quantities," Short Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, 1992
Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. written with
Robert Trost.
"Getting Forecast Standard Errors of Motor Gasoline Demand with Stochastic Simulation," Short
Term Energy Outlook: Supplement, 1991 Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department
of Energy, Washington, D.C. written with Robert Trost.
"Biomass Fuel Supply: A Methodology for Determining Marginal Costs", Washington State
Energy Office, Olympia. Technical Report, December 1985.
“Industrial Energy Substitution: Econometric Analysis of U.S. Data, 1958-1974", Interim
Report, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. December 1981 with M. Hazilla and
R. Kopp.

Books:

Study Guide for use with Contemporary Money, Banking, and Financial Markets: Theory and
Practice, written with Jane de Winter to accompany textbook with same name by Michael G.
Hadjimichalakis and Karma G. Hadjimichalakis, Richard D. Irwin Inc., Chicago, 1995.

Book Reviews

Book Review for, The International Journal of Forecasting, 20/20 Foresight Crafting Strategy in
an Uncertain World,
by Hugh Courtney, Harvard Business School Press, 2002.
Book Review for The International Journal of Forecasting, Elements of Forecasting, written by
Francis V. Diebold, SouthWestern Publishing Co. 1998.
Book Review for, The International Journal of Forecasting, Testing Macroeconometric Models,
written by Ray Fair, Harvard University Press, 1997.

Papers under Submission

Estimating Regional Short-run and Long-run Price Elasticities of Residential Natural Gas
Demand in the U.S.” submitted to the Energy Policy, written with Robert P. Trost, David Shin,
and Bruce McDowell, June 2010.
“Global Energy Outlook, Oil Prices, and Quantifying Energy Vulnerability,” invited paper and
forthcoming in Journal of Tashkent State Technology University. “Fiscal and Political Instability and the Growth Nexus in Developing Countries: An Application to Nigeria,” written with Issouf Samake under review at IMF Working Paper Series, April 2009. “Oil Prices, Fiscal Policy, and Venezuela’s Economic Growth,” written with Amany El-Anshasy, and Michael D. Bradley, received a revise and resubmit from the Energy Journal. “The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and Technology on Aggregate Output,” written
with Yasser Abdih, submitted to Journal of Policy Modeling, May 2010.
“Modeling Hourly Electricity Loads in the PJM,” for special issue of Journal of Energy Markets.

Working Papers
“The Economics of Solar Energy in the NEMS Model,” with Mark Hutson, Arun Malik and
Robert Trost.
“Modeling Monthly Norwegian Electricity Consumption Model,” with Anna Marte, Stein Erik
Fleten, and Sjur Westgaard, November, 2009.
Yasser Abdih and Frederick Joutz (2008) “The Impact of Public Capital, Human Capital, and
Knowledge on Aggregate Output,” September, IMF Working Paper No. 08/218

“A Macroeconometric Model for Uzbekistan: Income and the Demand for Money,” written with
Akmal Abdurazakov May 2008.
“Another Look at the Fed Forecasts,” written with Herman O. Stekler April 2008. “Extreme Value Estimators: Their Long Memory Feature and Forecasting Performances in U.S.
“Sectoral Demand for Energy by Fuel Type in Thailand,” written with Poonpat
Leesombatpiboon. Paper is being prepared for the 32nd Annual IAEE Conference on Energy,
Economy, and the Environment: the Global View, San Francisco, June 2009.
“Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in the Philippines,” Written with Kotaro Ishi.
Paper is being prepared for the 32nd Annual IAEE Conference on Energy, Economy, and the
Environment: the Global View, San Francisco, June 2009.
“Modeling Underlying Trends in OECD Energy Demand: Stochastic or Deterministic,” written
with
Lester C Hunt, October 2007.
“Income Inequality, Trade, Capital, and Education: A Long-run Relationship,” written with
Jeremy Schwartz, March 1, 2007.
What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share? Stephan Danninger and Fred
Joutz; IMF Working Paper 07/24; February 1, 2007
“The Relationship Between Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices,” written with Jose Villar, U.S.
Energy Information Administration, October 2006.
“Natural Gas Prices, Price Volatility, Industrial Natural Gas Consumption, and Industrial
Activity,” written with David Costello and Poonpat Leesombpatiboon, April 2006, submitted to
Energy Economics.
Working Papers (continued)

Relating the Knowledge Production Function to Total Factor Productivity: An Endogenous
Growth Puzzle Yasser Abdih and Frederick Joutz April 1, 2005, IMF Working Paper No. 05/74
“The Yield Curve Slope and Monetary Policy Innovations,” with Edward N. Gamber, Institute
for Advanced Studies Economics Series #171, Vienna, Austria, May 2005.
“Hourly Electricity Loads: Temperature Elasticities and Climate Change” with Christian
Crowley, presented at North American Energy Economists Association Meeting, Mexico City,
Mexico, October 2003.
“The Energy Price – GDP Relationship: World Oil Market Dynamics, An Alternative
Macroeconomic Framework, and the Historical Evidence,” Prepared for the Allied Social
Sciences Meeting January 3-6, 2004 in San Diego CA, IAEE session The Value of and Role for
Government Strategic Inventories in Petroleum Markets.

“Convergence Among U.S. Regions: Comparing Univariate and Bivariate Testing Methods,”
with Richard E. Kane, December 2003.
“Disability Benefit Applications, Economic Trends, and Projections,” written with Mikki D.
Waid, October 2003.
“Aggregate vs. Bottom-Up Models: Forecasting Monthly Electricity Consumption in Italy,”
Luca Pappalardo. February 2004.
“Federal Funds Target and Market Expectations Since 1991,” with William Treacy, November
2003.
“An Investigation of the Source of Bias Contained in Consensus Forecasts,” Edward. N. Gamber
"Modeling and Forecasting Demand for Highway Diesel Fuel and Prices," written with Julian
Silk, 2001.

Funded Research

2009 Proposal for University Seminar Proposal on Forecasting - $2,500 received.
The Economics of Solar Electricity Generation, Request for Proposals (IASE-2008-1) Institute
for Analysis of Solar Energy, October 2008, with Frederick L. Joutz, Arun Malik, and Robert P.
Trost Department of Economics (Budget $40K awarded)
A Literature Survey on the Economics of Solar Energy Request for Proposals (IASE-2008-1)
Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, October 2008, with Frederick L. Joutz, Robert P. Trost
and Anthony Yezer Department of Economics, and Lance J. Hoffman Department of Computer
Science, (proposal $40K not awarded)
Junior Faculty Development Program (JFDP) to sponsor visiting scholars from former Soviet
republics and the Balkans. Sponsor:The Department of State Bureau of Educational and Cultural
Affairs. 2007 and 2008.
Collaborative research project entitled, "Implications of Climate Change in Regional Air
Pollution, Health Effects, and Energy Consumption Behavior." The research was performed
with Johns Hopkins' Professors Hugh Ellis and Ben Hobbs from the Department of Geography
and Environmental Engineering and Dr. Jonathon Patz from the Bloomberg School of Public
Health. We received a three year $1.5 million grant from the National Center for Environmental
Research at the US EPA. My role in the project was to develop short-run and long-run models
for electricity demand. 2002-2004.
Federal Forecasters Consortium. Organizing annual conference of forecasters in the federal government and selection committee of Best Paper(s) from the conference. Award is approximately $2,500 - $3,500 per conference. 2003-present “Preemptive Strategies for the Assessment and Management of Financial System Risk Levels in Latin American Countries,” Globalization Research with Professor Ted Barnhill and the Financial Markets Research Institute, Institute for Brazilian Business and Public Management, and Center for Real Estate and Urban Analysis (Chartered GW Center/ Institute) 2003 Grant award $47,500. “Modeling and forecasting patent propensities,” The research involved developing econometric models and forecasting modeling of patent activity both domestic and international. This included serving and participating as an Economic and Forecasting Expert to U.S. delegation at Trilateral Patent Statistics Group meetings in the U.S., the European Patent Office in Munich, Germany and the World Intellectual Property Office in Geneva, Switzerland.1992-2005. Grant awards varied by year. European Patent Office Research Program – Modeling and Forecasting Patent Filings at the National Level 2002-03,Grant Award $30,000. National Park Service Research Grant - “U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study,” co-authored with Aimee Dimmerman). 1998. Grant award $5,000. Fellowships and Awards

1983-1984
Alfred Sloan Natural Resources Grant four quarters. Junior Scholar Incentive Award, The George Washington University. PRIDE Teaching Award, The George Washington University. Best Paper Award, Federal Forecasters Conference Citation for Excellence for Paper “Data Revisions and Forecasting” by ANBAR Electronic Intelligence National Park Service Research Grant - “U.S. Population Demographics and Recreational Preferences Study,” (co-authored with Aimee Dimmerman) STAR Research Award from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency European Patent Office Research Program – Modeling and Forecasting Patent Filings at the National Level George Washington University Institute for Public Policy, Policy Research Scholar Competition , Title of Proposal: “Combining Short-Run Energy and Macroeconometric Models for Forecasting Purposes” Senior Fellow, United States Energy Economics Association Teaching
Undergraduate Courses
ECON 12
ECON 12DE Principles of Macroeconomics – Distance Learning ECON 102 Graduate Courses
ECON 305
Macroeconomic Theory I (formerly ECON 205) Laboratory in Applied Econometrics (formerly ECON 277) Introduction to Econometrics for Elliot School Students University Service
Department
Director, Research Program on Forecasting Chair Search Committee PhD Committee II Chair, Department Computer Committee Center for Economic Research, Board Member Chair, Funger 636 Computer Laboratory Committee Member, Senior Macroeconomics Search Committee Member, Junior Macroeconomics Search Committee Comprehensive Exam Review - Macroeconomics, Monetary Economics, and Elliot International Affairs School Development Economics Program B.A. Advising Committee 1988-1991 PhD Committee
University Service

President’s Innovation Task Force – Business Process Group Chair, Research and Instructional Technology Committee, 2006-08 Member, Advisory Council on Research 03-05 Member, Instructional Technology Advisory Committee, 95-99 Chair, Research and Instructional Technology SubCommittee, 97-00 Member, Research and Instructional Technology SubCommittee, 95-96,and 96-97 Member, Classroom Technology Committee, 97-present Vice President’s University Committee on Research 97 Freshman Advising Workshop 95-96 and 96-97 Colonial Inauguration 95, 96, 97, and 2006 Vice President's Advisory Council on Academic Computing (ACAC) 90-95 ACAC subcommittees on Classrooms, Databases, Computers in the classroom Faculty Network Admissions Program 91-99 Professional Activities
Memberships

Associate Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (2000-2003) Book Co-Editor, International Journal of Forecasting (1999-2003) Associate Editor, Energy Economics (2002-2004) American Economic Association Western Economic Association International Energy Economists Association Council Member, International Energy Economists Association, National Capital Chapter (2000-present) International Institute for Forecasters Federal Forecasters Association Journal Referee
American Economic Review, The Journal of Political Economy, Economic Inquiry, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Macroeconomics, Journal of Economic Dynamics and control, Applied Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, The Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Financial Econometrics, Economic Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Energy Economics, Energy Journal, Energy Policy, Eastern Economic Journal, Oxford Journal of Business and Statistics, Quarterly Journal of Economics and Business, Journal of Economic Education, The American Economist, NSF review, Bioresources Technology. Volunteer
Stroke & Turn Judge, Timer – Montgomery Swim League, Potomac Valley Swimming MSI Assistant Soccer Coach (2002-2009), BCC Little League Baseball Coach (1996-1988), Robotics Team Mentor, Tilden Middle School and Walter Johnson High School (1998-2006), Red Cross Blood and Pheresis Donor, Council Advisory Committee on Scouting for Handicapped, National Capital Area Council of Boy Scouts. 1989-91. Languages
THAILAND'S ENENGY SECURITY: STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE  Chair   Three Essays on the Evolution of Government Domestic Debt in  Three Essays in Time Series Macroeconometrics  Empirical Investigations of Economic Fluctuations in Developing  Countries: An Application to Nigeria  Three essays in interational macroeconomics  Extreme Value Estimator: their long‐memory feature and  forecasting performances in US stock indeces  Measuring the Returns to National R&D: Public and Private  Technology Diffusion and Environmental Regulation: Evidence  from Electric Utilities under the Clean Air Act  Oil Prices, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Growth in Oil Exporting  Three Essays in Natural Resource Economics and the Environment Co‐chair Congressional Voting and Energy Research and Development  Modeling Output and Inflation in the Philippines: An Application  chair  of VAR Modeling with contemporaneous and Long‐Run Restrictions  The Adjustment of Markets and Expectations to Monetary Policy  chair  Actions and Other Significant Information Events  A Time Series Approach To Modeling Economic Growth  Exports, Real Exchange Rate Movements in Mexico: An Error  An Error Correction Model for Exchange Rates with Currency  Substitution: Canadian Dollar‐U.S. Dollar Case  Seasonality, Unit Roots, and Commodity Prices  Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from  Charolambros Tsangarides  A Bayesian Approach to Analyzing Economic Growth and Poverty  co‐chair  Forecasting with a Stochastic Growth Model  Farm Land Values and US Monetary Policy  Bank Market Structure, Financial Repression, and Economic  Market Inefficiencies in the Real Estate Market: Implications for  GARCH Analysis from a Bayesian Perspective  Price Elasticities of Public‐Sector Electricity Demand: The Case of  member Strategic Bidding and Market Power in Restructured Electricity  Markets: An Empirical Analysis of the PJM Energy Market  Trade and Environmental Policy: An Analysis of the Technology  R&D Investment, Financing, Firm Heterogeneity and Tax Policy: An member Examination of the U.S. Research and Experimentation Tax Credit  Financial Market Volatility and Economic Growth: A Non‐Linear  Monetary Policy Linkages and the Korean Economy  Measurement Error in Consumption and Income  Elasticities of Substitution in a Bayesian Framework  Speculative Bubbles in Real Estate Prices  Non‐Linear Models of Exchange Rate Determination  Government Subsidies and Economic Growth in Korea  Bank Market Structure and Risk Aversion  A Monetary History of Central Banking in Brazil  Computational Efficiency and Econometrics  Structural VAR Models of Oil Exporting Countries  Essays on Credit Spreads and Non‐Investment Grade Bonds  Two Essays in International Research Finance  Conditional Volatility Modeling in Finance  Consulting Experience - Federal Government

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) 1989-present: I have served as an expert
consultant to the Office of Statistical Standards and the Office of Energy Markets and End Use.
My responsibilities have included: writing technical reports, developing pilot models, reviewing
short term and long term energy demand and supply models and forecasts, evaluation of
renewable energy supplies and projections, and the analysis of energy and environmental policy
scenarios requested by the U.S. Congress. I have built portions of and reviewed components of
the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the Regional Short-Term Energy Outlook
(STEO). The components in the NEMS were the Electricity Market Module, Renewable Fuels
Module, Petroleum Market Module, Macroeconomic Activity Module, and International Market
Module. These modules feed information into the analysis of environmental and green-house gas
emissions for climate change analysis. My work on the STEO has involved developing and
testing the econometric electricity consumption forecasting model by U.S. region and sector, a
pilot international energy model, and analyzing the impact of natural gas price shocks on the
industrial sector in the U.S. In addition, I have provided technical assistance to other U.S.
Department of Energy (DoE) through EIA. This has included reviewing the impacts of world oil
markets on natural gas prices, the U.S. economy, and strategic petroleum reserves. I designed a
pilot theoretical and macroeconometric model for the U.S. to examine the sensitivity to oil price
shocks. This research supported the Office of Oil and Gas and DoE’s Office of Fossil Energy
and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) 1992-present: I have been an expert consultant to
the Office of Planning and Evaluation, Office of Finance, and the Office of the Commissioner.
My responsibilities have been to provide economic and technical advice and write reports on
modeling and forecasting domestic and international patent activities. I have served and
participated as an Economic and Forecasting Expert to U.S. delegation at Trilateral Patent
Statistics Group meetings in the U.S., the European Patent Office in Munich, Germany and the
World Intellectual Property Office in Geneva, Switzerland. In other work, I have built two
planning models. The first was a Simulation Model Calculator in Excel to analyze traffic at the
computer workstations in the patent search facility and investment planning for the USPTO’s
move to Alexandria. The second involved calculating the flow in the patent process from
applications to examination and patent pendency issues given the level and skills of the patent
examiner corps.
Economic Research Service (ERS), U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) 1995-99: I worked
as a technical consultant to the ERS. I worked on projects and wrote technical reports evaluating
forecasts of food price series and provided alternative forecasting models. In addition, I wrote a
report describing the process for making agricultural output and price forecasts for ERS and
USDA Outlook publications.
Consulting Experience –Training Courses in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting I
have provided short courses (2-5 days) for the EIA and Timberlake Consultants. The courses for
Timberlake have been in New York City Los Angeles, CA and Milan, Italy for clients from
Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, U.K., Norway, Ghana, and Brazil. I have assisted David Hendry
teaching a course on forecasting and Neil Ericsson teaching a course on modeling at the IMF
annually for four years. In addtion, I have taught courses at the Norwegian Science and
Technology Institute in Trondheim on Econometric Time Series Modeling. Also, I have taught
an applied macroeconometric modeling and forecasting course for the Ministry of Presidential
Affairs in the UAE.
He taught a two-week Survey of Macroeconomics course in September, 1995 at the International
Business School, Management Training Center (USA) Inc. The students were senior Russian
government officials and managers of private firms.
He has given several one-day workshops at Meridian House in Washington, D.C. for visiting
foreign journalists and government officials on the U.S. economy over the last three years. The
visitors are sponsored by USAID and have come from Hungary, Russia, Kirghizstan, and
Romania.
Selected Consulting Experience - Private Sector
American Gas Association 2006-07: I served as an economic consultant analyzing the price
elasticity of residential natural gas demand from a sample of natural gas utility companies in
different regions of the United States. The work will be performed in close consultation with the
Policy Analysis Group and the Chief Economist of AGA. We developed and estimated dynamic
models of natural gas demand incorporating income, conservation, and technical efficiency
effects.
ISO New England PowerPool 2006: I served as expert consultant reviewing and evaluating the
long-run energy and seasonal peak load forecast methodologies by the ISO-NE for the region. In
addition, I developed alternative forecasting models to compare with the existing models.
Exelon Power Management: 2004: I served as an economic forecasting consultant on sectoral
electricity and natural gas energy sales, number of customers, and revenue. The services
consisted of a qualitative evaluation of the current forecasting tools, recommendations for
enhancements that could improve forecast accuracy, and provide assistance in the
implementation of the enhancements.
Charles River Associates 2000-2002: I served as a consultant providing expertise on time series
econometric and forecasting issues. My responsibilities were to provide written reports and make
forecasts on the construction products industry. I provided support for testimony before the U.S.
International Trade Commission.
PriceWaterhouseCoopers Inc. 1999: I served as a consultant writing a report on measuring
Intangible Capital. The project involved analyzing different valuation methods of computing the
lives of intangible assets like R&D capital.
Trade Resources, Inc 1998: I served as a consultant providing econometric advice on time series
modeling and forecasting. I testified as an expert witness in an anti-dumping dispute before the
Canadian International Trade Tribunal. My task was to review existing research and develop an
economic forecasting model for a sector in the construction industry.
Bivings Woodell, Inc. 1997: I served as an expert consultant on two projects examining the role and importance of stock markets in the U.S. economy, conducted studies on the characteristics of firms in a stock market, and summarized academic research on pricing in asset markets. The first evaluated the performance of the top 125 firms listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The second produced an assessment of the employment and economic contributions from the chemical industry. This involved making projections from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data and input-output tables. Chase Manhattan Bank - Office of Global Risk Management 1990: I conducted empirical research on asset pricing models. Flight Resources Inc., Gaithersburg, MD 1988 to 1991: I served as an Economist-Board Member. The firm managed and operated small municipal airports. My responsibilities were to provide general economic advice and forecast airport revenues and fuel prices. Seattle City Light - Economic Analyst-Paid Intern 1983-86: He worked as an for, municipal electric utility from. He examined the economic feasibility wood-fired generating plants and determining the cost of wood fuel supply.

Source: http://www.fbe.uaeu.ac.ae/dba/faculty_cv/FJoutz_Curriculum_vita_Sept_2011.pdf

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